Let’s be clear about what US President Donald Trump is doing. Last night’s declaration of victory before all the valid
votes had been counted is an ongoing attempt at a presidential coup d’etat. It is a coup that he expects to be
rubberstamped by a compliant Supreme Court and enforced on the streets by his goon squads of armed militia. If this was
happening in Venezuela, New Zealand’s Foreign Minister would be denouncing it, and rightly so. So… where is the rebuke
from our Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the defence of the principles that underpin democracy?
Elsewhere – in Australia and in Ireland, for example – their respective foreign ministers have already issued statements
that implicitly denounce Trump’s actions:
Australia’s shadow foreign secretary Penny Wong, called for all the votes to be counted and the democratic process to be
respected: “It’s in Australia’s interest that America remains a credible, stable democracy,” she tweeted.
In an apparent shot at Trump, who falsely claimed victory, Ireland’s Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said, "This election is not over and it won't be over until all of the votes have been counted. So I think it's unwise for
anybody regardless of who they are, to be declaring a result."
At some point today, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and/or MFAT needs to be issuing a statement along similar lines. It
is sad to watch democracy in the United States being degraded, but that means we shouldn’t be sitting silent on the
sidelines as it happens, for fear of annoying the despot.The current situation
Ironically, the victory that Trump eked out in 2016 among the Rust Belt states in the Midwest is being played out again,
this time in reverse. On the Electoral College journey to the required 270 vote figure, Democratic contender Joe Biden
has 227 votes from the contests already declared, as opposed to Trump’s 213. The outstanding states, current margins and
percentages of the votes still to be counted are:
Wisconsin (20 Electoral College votes) 2% of votes still outstanding. Biden lead is 20,000. Biden would need to be ahead by more
than 1% of votes cast to avoid a recount. Currently he leads by only .6%
Michigan (16 Electoral College votes) 4-6% of votes still outstanding. Biden lead is 45.000 votes.
Nevada (6 Electoral College votes) 14% of votes still outstanding. Biden leads by just under 8.000 votes.
Georgia (16 Electoral College votes) 90,000 vote current lead for Trump, 250,000 votes still outstanding.
Arizona (11 Electoral College Votes) circa 250,000- 400,000 votes to be counted, Biden lead is 100,000 votes.
Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes) 80% counted. Trump leads by 400,000, but big Democratic-leaning blocs from Pittsburgh and
Philadelphia are still to be counted.
All of these contests – except Pennsylvania (and possibly Nevada) – should be declared later today. The arithmetic says
Biden could get across the line to 274 from his current 227 simply by winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. In that
scenario, Pennsylvania would be a bonus. Conversely, if Trump wins Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada, he still gets to
only 255 Electoral College votes from his current 213. Meaning: it’s still a knife edge but Biden has more reason to be
hopeful.
Whether a President Biden could govern with anything like a normal Democratic agenda is another matter – faced as he
would be with a hostile Supreme Court and a Senate still in the hands of his opponents. Clearly, the Democrats have
failed to flip the Senate after losing Senate contests in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina. Both of the
Georgia senatorial contests may go to run-offs in January that the Democrats would probably lose.
In Florida, Biden performed well among seniors and suburbanites, but never recovered from the devastating results in
Miami-Dade County, where Latino men apparently bought into Trump’s messaging that Biden would be a weak tool in the
hands of radical socialists who would tank the economy. Nationwide, Trump has for months enjoyed good poll numbers for
his handling of the economy. In addition, his supporters seemed receptive to his messaging that everything would have
been great if China hadn’t inflicted a pandemic on the US for which Trump supporters largely exempted him from blame. To
some extent, Trump prevailed among those who prioritised the economy, Biden among those who prioritised the handling of
the pandemic.
This story will be updated over the course of the day, as returns come in.