Regime Stability in the Middle East: An Analytical Model

The wave of uprisings that swept through Arab states in recent years has transformed the Middle East. Against this background, there is a need for a comprehensive analytical model to help assess both the likelihood of regime stability and the probability of regime change. This study proposes a model to identify the key elements that encourage or inhibit regime change. Assigning numerical weight to each of these elements, it analyzes the dynamics between them. Looking at case studies of four states through the prism of the proposed model, the authors examine the elements that led to the instability in Egypt of January 2011, explain why the Saudi Arabian and Iranian regimes are stable, and provide a new understanding of the struggle in Syria, pointing out factors that will be critical to the fate of the civil war. The authors contend that the model helps explain the regional changes, and allows insights into the dynamics at work in particular states. As such, it can serve as a tool to assess prospects for uprisings in the Middle East and the impact of future uprisings on the stability of the region.

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