78% Probability Key Knew of Dotcom Before 19 Jan 2012

iPredict: 78% Probability Key Knew of Dotcom Before 19 Jan 2012

https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=DOTCOM.NAME.KEY

Long Description
This contract pays $1 if, before 1 January 2015, evidence emerges publicly which contradicts John Key's statement that the first he knew of Kim Dotcom's name was the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (ie 19 January 2012); otherwise it pays $0.

Judging Criteria
The contract concerns Mr Key's statement that the first he heard Kim Dotcom's name was when he was briefed by the Solicitor General the day before the raids on Mr Dotcom's mansion which occurred on 20 January 2012.

The statement can be found after 2 mins 8 seconds at http://www.3news.co.nz/Who-knew-what-about-Kim-Dotcom/tabid/367/articleID/252734/Default.aspx.

For the purposes of this contract, Mr Key's use of the word "heard" will be taken to have meant "knew of".

The contract pays $1 if evidence becomes publicly available before 1 January 2015 which a reasonable person would believe proves, on the balance of probabilities, that Mr Key knew of Kim Dotcom's name before 19 January 2012.

The evidence, and proof of its veracity, must be published or broadcast in a new bulletin or section A of at least three ofTVNZ, TV3, RNZ, NewstalkZB, RadioLIVE, New Zealand Herald and Dominion-Post.

The contract will NOT pay $1 if evidence proves only that Mr Key knew of the name Kim Schmitz and does not clearly provide evidence that Mr Key knew of the name Kim Dotcom prior to 19 January 2012.

Evidence could include written documents, video or audio recordings, electronic documents, webpages and/or text messages.

It is not enough for this contract to close at $1 for evidence to become available that proves only that Mr Key heard Mr Dotcom's name in passing, such as at an event at which he may have been present where a number of names were mentioned in a speech. The evidence must indicate that Mr Key could reasonably have been expected to have become conscious of Mr Dotcom's name so that he would be likely to recall it in future.

In trading this contract, traders therefore acknowledge a degree of subjectivity in the contract and agree that iPredict's judgment on all aspects of the contract will be final.

In setting the closure price, future public statements on this topic by Mr Key and media commentary will be taken into account, but, as noted above, iPredict's judgment will be final.

All dates and times are NZ Time.

ENDS

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