NPR: Primary Battles Strengthen Democrats' Standing
Executive Summary
With both primaries still open, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies conducted the latest in our
series of bipartisan polls for National Public Radio in the midst of the Florida primaries and less than a week before
super Tuesday. The survey of 1,000 likely voters fielded January 29-31 and has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.
The survey finds voters are still deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country and looking for Democrats to
bring a new direction. Indeed, more than two-thirds say the country is headed in the wrong direction and voters favor
Democrats on the generic presidential ballot by 5 points (49 to 44 percent).
The primary battles are aligning Democrats with voters' preferences as the top priorities for the Democratic
presidential candidates are also the most important concerns for voters - change from Bush, the economy and the war in
Iraq. More importantly, voters agree with Democrats more than Republicans on the issues as a whole by a 7-point margin
and on candidates' personal characteristics by a 6-point edge.
The bases of both parties are very satisfied with their candidates. After hearing the candidates throughout the primary
process, about six-in-ten Republicans are more likely to support McCain and Romney and about two-thirds of Democratic
voters are more likely to vote for Clinton or Obama. The differences that produce net positive support for the Senators
from Illinois and Arizona and negative support for Clinton and Romney are a function of independents' preferences for
Obama and McCain.
Beyond the primary season, the dynamics of the general election will be very different depending on which candidates
emerge as the nominees. Clinton and Obama tie the vote with McCain by virtually the same margin, yet the dynamic of
these races are significantly different.
Methodology
These results are based on a bi-partisan survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in conjunction with Public Opinion
Strategies for National Public Radio. The survey fielded January 29-31, 2008. It has a sample size of 1,000 likely
voters and a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent. The results and broadcast can also be found at www.npr.org, although
neither NPR nor POS are responsible for the comments above.
Key Findings
Change from Bush stands alone for one quarter of voters as the single highest priority for Democratic presidential
candidates. Voters also see Democratic presidential candidates addressing two of their highest concerns - the economy and the war in
Iraq. On both of these issues voters prefer Democrats' standing and they side with Democrats on the economy and Iraq by
14 and 9 points, respectively. These two issues will certainly shape the upcoming primary debates as candidates discuss
what policies will be better to get the economy moving again and deal with Iraq. On the Republican side, the priorities of the candidates are not clearly defined. Voters mention several issues as
Republicans' highest priorities (the war in Iraq, the economy and the war on terrorism) but none of them really breaks
through. A confrontation between Clinton and McCain will produce a very polarized electorate with strong support from both bases
and few voters crossing party lines. A base election could be a good thing for Democrats in an environment desperate for
change. A race between Obama and McCain shows weaker support for the candidates from their respective bases and an intense
battle for independents as both candidates are very popular with this bloc of voters.
Downloads
NPR Survey: January 2008 (Survey Results) (PDF - 5 K)
NPR Survey: January 2008 (Graphs) (PDF - 24 K)
ENDS