The Letter – Monday, 11 December 2006
The Haps
Politics winding down. Just six days of parliament left. National morphs further into Labour. The census raises
questions about growth. “Read this book” says reviewer.
Pre Christmas
Politics tends to wind down prior to Christmas. Governments like to put the accelerator down and push though legislation
but there are few bills this year. In Christmas week Ministers have a tendency to release controversial reports knowing
that they will not get proper scrutiny. The first of these the governments long over due climate policy document
covering electricity generation due today.
All wind
Without subsidy wind is not competitive with coal and even with a subsidy wind is not the answer. Owen McShane in his
weekly digest comments on a new report by J.A Halkema “Wind Energy: Facts and Fiction: A half truth is a whole lie” and
says the promises of wind is not being delivered. (No one has figured out how to get the wind to blow everyday.) See
http://www.countryguardian.net. While Labour is setting totally unrealistic “aspirational” goals, New Zealand, per head
of population is further from achieving its Kyoto targets than any other Western nation. This is partly because of good
growth but mainly because methane, not carbon dioxide is the biggest producer of green house gasses and we are cutting
down our forests to create methane producing dairy farms. The report to handle this will be much more controversial
topic is being held back for Christmas week.
Bull Sh*t
Today the Herald reports UN saying “Cows, not cars, top threat to the environment”. Owen McShane’s Digest also says that
the academic magazine American Scientist says the concentrations of methane in the atmosphere, unlike carbon dioxide,
are falling! See http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/54097 It would be so like Labour to
launch a program to control something that is not a problem.
The Nat-Labs
It has been observed that the final result of war is to become your enemy. We observe that the war on terror to preserve
democracy daily results in less freedom. In politics one observes the same thing happening to parties. Helen Clark rails
against the “failed policies of the past” while quietly adopting an independent Reserve Bank, the Fiscal Responsibility
Act, SOEs, etc. John Key and Bill English in their head long rejection of Don Brash appear to be morphing National into
Labour. Those on the hospital waiting list who had their operations delayed yet again by a strike will be amazed to
learn that John Key thinks the labour laws are working well.
What is left?
John Key has publicly rejected dropping race based policies, rejoining ANZUS, has embraced Kyoto, talked of increasing
social spending and has re instated PC by appointing a woman’s affairs spokesman. National has given up the high ground
on election funding. While John Key says he favours tax cuts he has made Bill English his finance spokesman who has
publicly questioned the connection between tax cuts and growth and as finance minister did not promote free enterprise
solutions.
History lesson
It is worth remembering that National has tried the me-too policy before, in the 2002 election, and the result? The
worst defeat in the parties history. National tried a clear policy choice last election. The result? The best result for
National for 15 years.
Winning strategy
Don’s Orewa speech galvanized National’s base and attracted new members and support. Muldoon showed that the one thing
worse than a Labour government is a National-Labour government. National’s leadership seems to be saying that it is
willing to enter into a coalition with the Maori party who split with Labour because there were some race based policies
even Labour would not adopt. Turia called in a recent speech for other races to have separate representation in
parliament!
Growth without wealth
Two documents this week raise questions about living standards. The first is a paper by Helen Clark’s husband that
suggests we are working longer with both parents working but our real standard of living has not increased. The
declining affordability of housing seems to reinforce this. The second document is the census and the news that the
population has had its biggest percentage increase for over 100 years. It is an obvious point but often missed, if the
economy is growing but so is the population, then the individual standard of living may not be growing as there are more
of us to share.
Book Review
“Read this book – I have just read – at one sitting – Richard Prebble’s latest book, Out of the Red. If you read no
other book this year (or next year) read this one…”Out of the Red” would make a great Christmas present for those
friends and relatives who still believe that the Lange/Douglas government sold off our national “assets”. As always with
Prebble, there are fascinating insights into the politics of the process, but the book is actually about business,
governance and management. We do not expect retired politicians to write great textbooks on management but that is what
Richard Prebble has done. Given that most management texts are written by overseas experts we are doubly fortunate that
this one is grounded in New Zealand enterprises and experience.
Once again we should apply the media attention “inverse square rule”- which says that the attention paid by the media to
a book bears an inverse squared relationship to its importance. Think Hagar and think Prebble and you will get the point
– especially when you have read “Out of the Red”
Owen McShane Digest.
How to buy
Just $29-95, free post go to www.richardprebble.com or buy the old fashion way and send a cheque for $29-95 to The
Letter, 45 State highway 30, Lake Rotoma, RD 4, Rotorua, 3074, today, to get delivery for Christmas.
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