Council On Hemispheric Affairs
MONITORING POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND DIPLOMATIC
ISSUES AFFECTING THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
Friday, October 13th, 2006
Press Releases, Ecuador
Ecuador’s Elections: Correa’s Ascension Gives Boost to an Otherwise Flagging Pink Tide
“Calling Bush the devil is offending the devil… The devil is evil, but intelligent.” (Rafael Correa)
• Ecuador’s Chávez smells victory
• With a little bit of luck and a continuous spike in the polls, Correa could win the presidency in the first
round
• His economic policy may be more bark than bite, thus allaying Washington’s fears over oil
By supporting Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s explosive speech at the UN General Assembly, left-leaning candidate
Rafael Correa has become the center of attention in Ecuador’s October 15 election. With his bold anti-U.S. rhetoric,
Correa has stirred mounting interest in the country’s normally lackluster electoral season, being repeatedly identified
as Chávez’s next ally in the Andean region. Correa’s unprecedented rise in the polls stems from a well-crafted campaign
that skilfully focuses on both a pledge to make a clean sweep of the traditionally corrupt government and a brazen
reluctance to follow Washington’s guidance. In a country and region where sentiment against market-driven reforms
prevails, Correa has empowered himself through his proactive agenda as leader of change, with a good chance of winning
the presidency in the first round.
A Promising Candidate
Since September 13, leftist-candidate Rafael Correa and his party Alianza País have taken the lead of the presidential
race with 37 percent of the vote, leaving León Roldós, the moderate candidate heading the Red Etica y Democrácia
(RED-ID), in second place with 21 percent. He, in turn, is closely followed by banana magnate Alvaro Noboa, with 19
percent. With relatively limited political experience, front-runner Correa has adroitly positioned himself as an
“outsider,” a staunch advocate of poverty reduction and a vigorous defender of Ecuadorian sovereignty. Although he was
forced into an early resignation for speaking out in favor of a revision to the unpopular bilateral free trade treaty
with the U.S. under the current Palacio administration, his explosive exit from the Finance Department only served to
buttress his popular support. His outspokenness and ensuing public acceptance has left his opponents no choice but to
shift to the left.
In light of recent events - such as Peruvian leftist candidate Ollanta Humula’s loss to centrist Alan García, or a
disgruntled López Obrador’s eventual concession in the Mexican presidential race to Felipe Calderón - many commentators
have claimed that the Pink Tide was waning. However, Rafael Correa’s upsurge has greatly contributed to a revival of the
regime’s Chávez-led ideological momentum. Indeed, Correa repeatedly has spelled out his respect and admiration for his
Venezuelan role model. However, this relationship has now become subject to intense scrutiny by Correa’s competing
candidate. Several of them have launched a dirty tirade campaign against him, aimed at tarnishing his image. Roldós
energetically raised the Chavez specter by accusing Chávez of meddling in Ecuador’s election, a plot that was
successfully used by the García campaign in Peru and in the Calderón campaign in Mexico. Cynthia Viteri, a conservative
candidate who stands fourth place in the polls, has accused Correa of closely engaging with Abdalá Bucaram, former
corrupt Ecuadorian president, now in exile in Panama. These last-ditch tactics seemed to have failed in slowing down
Correa’s momentum at the polls, as testified by the precipitous drop of undecided voters from 49 to 18 percent, as well
as the growth in positive support he has enjoyed over the past two weeks.
Another valuable asset Correa possesses is that he stands a good chance of inheriting the indigenous vote that has
proved significant in recent years. Although he comes from a middle class background, he is fluent in Quechua, one of
the main native American dialects spoken by some ten million people throughout South America. He also has been involved
in educational programs in poor Amerindian areas. This represents a clear advantage in a country where 45 percent of the
population can claim indigenous heritage.
A Dysfunctional and Unstable Institutional System
According to Transparency International, a non-partisan organization monitoring government venality, Ecuador is the
second most corrupt nation in Latin America. Ecuadorians, who are regularly exposed to endless cabinet reshuffles and
fraudulent practices at the highest levels, are experiencing mounting frustration and instinctive mistrust toward the
country’s elites. “Popular coups” are commonplace in a country whose political system is known for being one of the most
unstable in the region, with no elected president having been able to complete his term in almost ten years. Indeed,
over the last 15 months, five ministers of economy and four ministers of foreign trade have come and gone after
pressures resulting from street strikes. This tense situation reached its climax in April 2005, when Lucio Gutiérrez
became the latest in a long line of Ecuadorian presidents to be ousted from office by extra-constitutional means.
Among political institutions, the Congress possibly represents the country’s most distrusted branch of government, with
95 percent of the population disapproving of its conduct. It consists of a 100-seat unicameral House that is comprised
of well over a dozen parties, not one of which occupies more than 25 seats. Despite its fragmented nature, it has
managed to cobble together the two-thirds majority necessary to impeach the president twice in the last ten years.
In accordance with his outspoken rejection of the political establishment, Correa made clear his refusal to submit a
slate of Congressional candidates. While running as an independent candidate, Alianza País, Correa’s party, will not
benefit from any formal representation in the unique powerful Parliament. This strategy could turn extremely perilous if
Correa is elected president since he would lack control over a political bloc in the next legislature. As a result, he
has vowed to convene a constituent assembly with absolute powers to draft a new constitution. This plan is reminiscent
of Chávez’s use of a plebiscite to rewrite the Venezuelan constitution and needs to be carried out cautiously in order
to find a harmonious balance between the executive and legislative branches. Comparable attempts in the past to revamp
the Constitution have led, on a number of occasions, to a spike in presidential prerogatives.
Whipping Ecuador: “Dale Correa” (give them the belt)
Institutional instability combined with a long-lasting economic crisis have plunged Ecuador into an ongoing plight. If
Correa’s call for future economic autonomy has received enthusiastic popular support, it is precisely because the
citizenry has grown aware of the painful contradiction of possessing a valuable resource base, but not experiencing the
kind of economic growth that will raise living standards. Indeed, oil-exporter Ecuador continues to import about $1.5
billion a year in finished petroleum products because it lacks the refining capacity to meet domestic needs.
Following Quito’s bold May announcement to expel U.S. oil-giant Occidental Petroleum (which ultimately led to the
rupture of its FTA talks), President Alfredo Palacio signed a series of energy cooperation agreements with Venezuela
that will enable state-owned Petroecuador to develop fields capable of generating well over $1 billion in oil
production. This measure marked the beginning of a closer commercial relationship between the two countries and is
consistent with Correa’s firm commitment to reassert Ecuador independence over its natural resources. While he does not
favor a full nationalization of the oil industry, Correa is determined to depoliticize Petroecuador and reshape it
according to a more business-oriented model. At the same time, he also has underlined the need to channel oil revenues
towards social programs through the renegotiation of contracts with foreign investors in the oil industry, such as
Spain’s Repsol and Brazil’s Petrobras.
Correa’s aggressive platform, in conjunction with a vow to limit debt payment, clearly challenges IMF rules and the FTA
model imposed by Washington, and seeks to reassert the country’s independence over its natural resources. Considering
the alarming level of external debt that presently consumes a large part of Ecuador’s meager financial resources, a
rapprochement with oil-rich Venezuela could represent a viable opportunity to break the web of financial dependency in
which Quito has been entangled since the 1970s. The idea of an independent and strong Ecuador is also visible in
Correa’s declaration to reinstall the Sucre as Ecuador’s national currency, putting an end to the dollarization of the
economy.
What Changes Will Ecuador See in The Wake of a Correa Victory?
For the first time, the change in leadership presents Ecuador with an opportunity to define a clear political-economic
path for the future. The country’s vulnerable position obliges it to build solid trade alliances in order to achieve its
goal of a sustainable and equitable growth agenda. It also requires a broad national consensus regarding the
institutional financial configuration that will be the basis for Ecuador’s future growth model.
However, a closer look at Correa’s background forces many to ponder the depth of his current loyalty to the
Chávez-Morales-Castro anti-imperialist group. He is neither a military nor a peasant, but rather a white-collar
descendant from Guayaquil, Ecuador’s most wealthy city. Correa has a master’s degree from the Catholic University of
Leuven and a doctorate from the University of Illinois. Despite his strong commitment to act with a “whip hand,” some
political observers would argue that his sympathies toward Chávez are merely a ruse to secure the poverty vote and that
he will pursue a more centrist path once in office, which could prove dangerous for him, given the high turnover of
recent Ecuadorian presidents who recanted their commitment to the marginalized classes once in office. If Correa is
elected, we will soon know if he will put into practice his ideal of economic self-sufficiency or concede to a more
pragmatic management style.
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This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Magali Devic
October 13th, 2006
Word Count: 1600
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