Molesworth & Featherston - Weekend Update edition
Business and Political News
July 15th 2006
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Rolling average poll
It’s the Nats by a lengthening nose
Two new surveys in our rolling average poll show a huge divergence in support for the two major parties, with the net
result a slight firming of support for National in our exclusive rolling poll of polls. The more public of the two – a 3
News TNS poll this week - brought forth some bilge purporting to be political reporting, as commentators lined up to
predict trouble for National leader Don Brash based on seven point lead for Labour. The truth is:
1) The Roy Morgan poll – taken a little earlier over a longer period of time and therefore marginally less relevant ‘tis
true – should have been taken into account if the commentary was to be treated as objective. It showed National in front
by eight points. (TV3 might be absolved somewhat on the basis that organisations that pay for polls invariably treat
their own as the only true gospel … in order to get best value from their outlay.)
2) Dr Brash is under threat and has been since he lost the election. It is a near certainty he will be rolled before
2008. But it is not likely one poll will do it, and at this stage the rolling poll does not scream "panic" at the Nats,
although there is clearly some work to do.
Assuming party leaders hold their seats, and that the Maori Party MPs retain their current four seats, it is a 122 seat
Parliament:
Percent Seats
National 42.78 54
Labour 41.37 52
Greens 5.73 7
NZ First 4.07 0
Maori 2.19 4
United Future 1.50 2
Act 1.26 2
Progressive 0.25 1
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