Wrong Way Bush
From: http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/052606R.shtml
Friday 26 May 2006
Let's give credit where credit is due. George W. Bush finally admitted some mistakes last night. For instance, he noted
that tough talk, such as challenging the Iraqi insurgents with the retort, "bring 'em on," sent the wrong signal and was
counterproductive. The road to recovery, whether from addiction or failed policy, starts with admitting one has a
problem. It is time for the President to do more than admit rhetorical mistakes. It is time to call a halt to our
mistaken policy in Iraq.
It is becoming increasingly clear that when it comes to Iraq, President George W. Bush is the Wrong Way Riegels of the 21st Century. Wrong Way Riegels was a football player who became infamous for running the wrong way and scoring a safety for the
opposing team. During the 1929 Rose Bowl game between Georgia Tech and California, Riegels, the center of the California
Bears, grabbed a fumble, was hit and spun around, and proceeded to run 64 yards to the wrong end zone. Riegels' mistake
gave the championship to Georgia Tech.
Like Riegels, George Bush is an amiable, enthusiastic player. Unlike Riegels, however, Bush's actions have weakened the
military, damaged our nation's prestige, and unleashed forces in the Middle East that pose long term threats to the
United States. Let's face it: Bush has scored a touchdown for Iran, our nemesis.
As we enter Memorial Day weekend it is time to take stock of the progress, or lack of progress, in bringing peace to
Iraq. The "new" government is one in name only. The Iraqi factions have failed to agree on who will control the Ministry
of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior. While Iraq politicians squabble, Iraqis with close ties to Iran are moving
forward. Moqtada al Sadr, for example, is working quietly behind the scenes to infiltrate and seize de facto control of
the police, the intelligence services, and the military. It appears he has made significant progress in this regard.
The bottom line: Iran is consolidating control of critical parts of Iraq through its surrogate, Moqtada al Sadr. The
civil war now under way consists largely of surreptitious group murders and retaliatory bombings. Since January of this
year, the number of daily attacks has surged from 72 a day to 135 per day. Most of this violence is directed against
civilians - Shia and Sunni. Yet US soldiers continue to pay a costly, bitter price. Our men and women are being killed
at a rate approaching three per day. The wounded are triple that.
Baghdad remains without a consistent supply of electricity, gasoline, and potable water. Electricity production, for
example, hovers between two to six hours per day. Friends who have recently returned from Iraq tell me that much of the
disruption in the electricity and oil pipelines is actually caused by the Iraqis assigned to repair these systems. In
other words, the local Iraqis with a vested financial interest in repairing these systems are also sabotaging them -
think of it as a guaranteed jobs program.
There are two significant dangers for the United States based on our current operations tempo (ops tempo) and force
deployment: (1) We are degrading the quality of the force, and (2) we are leaving the force vulnerable to a disruption
of the logistics supply line if we decide to attack Iran.
The decline of the quality of the US military - the Army, the Marines, and the Navy - is a middle to long term problem.
An officer who works in military intelligence recently sent me the following after reading the email exchange between
Joe Galloway and DOD press spokesman, Larry Dirita (Note, the term "O-3" refers to a Navy Lieutenant or a Major in the
Army and Marines; an "0-4" is either a Lieutenant Commander or Lieutenant Colonel.)
Through the scuttlebutt of my buddies in the community, a military intelligence unit alone hemorrhaged 27 out of 35
O-3's. The community is not large enough for losses like that, and thus those up for promotion soon should not be overly
proud they made it to O-4; it is nearly automatic now. The promotion rate is at 80% plus or minus a few points. I
respect what Joe Galloway wrote recently. It is unfortunate that the sycophants have the run of the place in the OSD.
These trends mean that we will lose nearly a quarter of our potential O-4's before they have even been boarded.
Military and civilian leaders are trying to solve this personnel loss by offering more money for folks to stay in and
lowering standards for both those recruited and those promoted.
The United States' ability to stay the course in Iraq is threatened by a fragile re-supply line, which runs from Kuwait
north to Baghdad. This road runs through the heart of Shia-controlled territory. Everything we need to keep our Army fed
and fueled comes up that road.
We face a dilemma if we decide to attack the neighboring country of Iran because of its nuclear ambitions. Iran is not
a passive observer. Iran is providing extensive, covert support to Shia militia in Iraq. US military planners must
assume that it is highly likely that insurgents backed by Iran will attack and cut the re-supply line. Truck convoys
will be captured and destroyed. Re-opening these roads would require significant military ground forces - forces that
are not in the area and probably could not be deployed in any significant numbers for at least several weeks, if not
months.
Our options in Iraq are shrinking with each passing day. The Shia forces are slowly consolidating their power. These
are not secular Shia. They are religious fundamentalists bent on imposing their vision of sharia on Iraq. The secular
Iraqis - Shia and Sunni alike - are fleeing Iraq. This brain drain further undermines the ability of Iraq to form an
effective, competent Government.
The Shia backed by Iran are biding their time and moving methodically forward. The challenge for the United States will
be to decide what level of support to provide to this emerging government. To the extent we are perceived as
facilitating or supporting the Shia consolidation of power, we will also be perceived as an enemy of the Sunnis. While
the Sunnis are a minority within Iraq, they have powerful ties to Sunnis in neighboring countries and will retain a
robust ability to conduct insurgent operations against Shias (and their allies) for the foreseeable future.
Memorial Day 2004 was commemorated when almost 1100 American soldiers and sailors had died in Iraq. Two years later,
the number is rapidly approaching 2600. It is time for the president and Congress to get serious about how long we will
continue to sacrifice our young men and women in a cause that will ultimately strengthen Iran's control of critical
Middle East oil reserves. That, in my view, is not a policy worth dying for.
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Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps
corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously
with the Central Intelligence Agency and US State Department's Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a
recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed
terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC's Nightline,
NBC's Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for
publications including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on
terrorism and aviation security around the world.