Combustible Mix Of Vendetta, Appeasement, Confusion And Infighting
By M.R. Josse
Commenting on the national political scenario in this space last week, this observer concluded that the difficult phase
of governance was just beginning. That prediction I regret to say has proved to be prescient.
Indeed, a week later, the political scene is not only murkier than ever. All things considered, it now appears to be a
combustible mélange of volatile elements of vendetta, appeasement, confusion and infighting. In short, the nation is
perhaps at the most critical, even explosive, stage of her political history in living memory.
VENDETTA
The government's and the House of Representatives' mood of political vendetta has been made crystal clear and is best
epitomized in the arrests of five former ministers, two of whom have filed petitions at the Supreme Court challenging
the legality of their detention under the Public Security Act 2049 BS. Not surprisingly perhaps, these selective arrests
have invited speculation as to why other ministers, including former members of SPA constituents, have been spared.
It has also been writ in large characters in the suspension of the heads of the police, the armed police and the
national intelligence agency, along with the recommendation from the SPA-appointed commission that the COAS of the Royal
Nepal Army too be dismissed.
That, it will be recalled, came atop the recall of virtually the entire roster of Nepal's ambassadors and dismissals of
scores of others who held important public positions within the country, mainly because of their appointment by the
former regime.
No wonder, then, that there is a sense of gloom and doom among large sections of the non-partisan public, including
among those who expected the dawn of a new, fairer and more enlightened era.
That staffers of some Ministries including Shital Niwas are now reportedly clamouring for instant dismissals of former
senior officials is also symptomatic of the present frenzied atmosphere of revenge. If this becomes the trend, the
entire bureaucracy may grind to a halt, thereby creating even more serious problems for the new rulers.
Incidentally, it has been further epitomized by the Finance Minister's recent "white paper" which attempts to slander
sections of the media. In the hurry to do so, it has been revealed that another section of the media had received
considerable amounts of public monies, if not in the immediate past.
APPEASEMENT
Meanwhile, the G.P. Koirala-led government seems to be on appeasement auto-pilot vis-à-vis the Maoists. Thus, while
Maoists are being released en masse all over the country, the government and its media are seemingly determined to
downsize the Army, change its nomenclature, and, in general, play ducks and drakes with its hallowed traditions,
including those having to do with promotions, merit, performance, retirement, chain of command and so forth.
It hardly requires a Karl von Clausewitz to realise where such a short sighted policy will lead the Army to and what its
impact on the comparative strengths of the Army and the Maoist's militia will be. In short, if carried out in the manner
in which some sections of the media have been reporting/advocating it, that would mean the virtual collapse of the only
organised force capable of resisting a Maoist take-over.
It could also mean the outright politicization of the Army, vertical splits and, even more dangerously, the breakup
along ethnic and other such fault lines. Who knows, it might promote war-lord-ism? I have in the past questioned the
wisdom of taking such an anti-Army stance. Here, I wish only to reiterate it, with even greater urgency.
I say so, among other reasons, because at the time of writing, credible reports are coming in of the Maoists'
recruitment drive. Is this the most propitious moment for destroying a national institution that has not only played a
crucial role in the unification of the country and its consolidation through difficult times but also promoted the
nation's image particularly through participation in a whole plethora of UN peace keeping operations around the world?
While on the subject, what must not go unnoted is that among the very first target of the Koirala-led government is the
Army's order of two Chinese aircraft which have reportedly now been cancelled, in addition to that of two MI-16 Russian
helicopters.
While it is easy to understand why China and Russia have indirectly been targeted, how sensible is it to jeopardise
Nepal's relations with two countries that have stood by her at difficult times? Is it this government's policy, then, to
downgrade relations with China and Russia, and perhaps even Pakistan? If so, let that be stated openly and allow the
public to judge its merit.
In any case, the government's transparent policy of appeasement contrasts, let it not go unnoted, with the Maoists open
demand for 50 percent of the national budget to – in Prachanda's words – "the people in remote areas and to fulfill the
basic needs of the PLA." Notably, the Maoist supremo has threatened that, otherwise, "we remain compelled to collect
taxes through our government" ( Kathmandu Post, 16 May, 2006).
The only saving grace, as of this writing, is that Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister K.P. Oli has reacted
strongly against such activities by the Maoists. Speaking at a public forum in Kathmandu 15 May Oli urged the Maoists to
create a conducive atmosphere for dialogue and peace by stopping all activities that adversely impact the peace process.
CONFUSION
In addition to jogging along the vendetta and appeasement tracks, the powers that be seem – to an outside observer, at
least – to be totally confused about what they are seeking and how they intend to go about it. As indicated last week,
there is still ambiguity about whether the 1990 Constitution is alive or not.
That it may be barely alive has, incidentally, been acknowledged by the newly appointed Attorney General Yagya Murti
Banjade who has been reported to have said the reinstated House of Representatives can go beyond the existing
Constitution. (Himalayan Times, 16 May 2006.)
If that report is, indeed, accurate, it would underline that it is alive, although there may be sections that the new
rulers wish to knock off as irrelevant or inconvenient in today's heated political clime.
Besides, the very same lack of clarity comes across is the reportage about the impending "House is Supreme" declaration
which, seemingly, has hit some obstacles given that it was not, as announced in sections of the press earlier, made
public on Monday.
While, at this stage, one does not know what exactly stood in the way of its proclamation on that date, I would, as a
layman, argue that such a unilateral arrogation of powers might not only hit legal obstacles but, indeed, could be
considered against the lofty aim of achieving a state of "total democracy".
ENDS
Besides, if the present House, reinstated through a mass demonstration of force and not through the ballot box, were to
declare itself "supreme" are we then to assume that it could, in theory if not in practice, continue in perpetuity as
none could challenge its decision(s)?
Furthermore, how would that be interpreted by the Maoists whose goodwill the government/House is so eager to secure? In
other words, how would the Maoists' demand for the House's dissolution stand vis-à-vis the "House is Supreme"
declaration? If it is "supreme, why should it be dissolved?
INFIGHTING
Finally, we have the familiar spectacle of infighting experienced, for example, in the bitter wrangling and delay over
the choice for Speaker of the House which, ultimately, went to UML's Subash Nemwang rather than to NC (D)'s Chitralekha
Yadav.
There is, then, the all-too-visible delay in the formation of a fully composed Council of Ministers: as of now, there is
still only a rump cabinet of seven members. From press and other reports it would appear that horse-trading and backroom
dealing are the order of the day – naturally, behind the scenes.
Added to such woes is that sectarian demand and populist rhetoric have begun to take its toll. An indication of the same
came, for example, in the form of a demonstration against the Prime Ministers' Office by the Nepal Federation of
Indigenous Nationalities Joint Struggle Committee demanding that that House declare Nepal a secular state – right away,
even ahead of what an elected constituent assembly might decide at a later date.
It hardly requires the wisdom of Solomon to visualise what might happen if such a demand is catered to – without first
seeking a much wider mandate such as that of a constituent assembly or a referendum: there would be
counter-demonstrations, perhaps even violence, by groups opposed to the idea of transforming Nepal into a secular state.
To sum up, the overall prognosis is not assuring anyway one looks at the sombre national political situation today.
ENDS