Nepal: Spine, Head And Heart Of The Matter
With the government adamant on holding municipal polls early next month in the face of escalating Maoist attacks and the
mainstream parties' intensifying boycott threats, Nepalis are staring squarely into a murky tunnel.
In such circumstances, postponement of the polls, as the mainstream parties have demanded, becomes an appealing option.
But in exchange for what? The royal regime, after all, sees these elections as the first important opportunity to prove
its critics wrong.
A few weeks ago, Nepali Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala offered to hold talks with King Gyanendra's government
if the monarch postponed the polls. Other members of the opposition alliance chastised Koirala for offering that
trade-off.
Dr. Tulsi Giri, the senior vice-chairman of the royal government, picked up the theme – keeping it within the realm of
possibility. However, it remains unclear whether delaying the municipal polls would be enough to spur reconciliation
between the palace and the parties to pave the way for broader based elections later.
Even if it were, on what terms would a compromise be struck? The wholesale dismantling of the royal regime, as the
alliance has demanded? In the given circumstances, it would take a huge leap of faith to expect the royal government to
sign its own death warrant.
In any case, would a new government be able to draw representation from – or at least the overt support of -- all the
seven members of the alliance? Or would there be holdouts – like the Nepali Congress and smaller communist groups during
the UML's coalition with Sher Bahadur Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic) -- ready with new pretexts for a new phase of
political confrontation?
If the mainstream parties and the Maoists, on the other hand, are still prepared to chart their own course without the
palace, then would their 12-point agreement retain enough resilience to hold elections to a constituent assembly? In
that case, another question arises: If the royal regime is so irrelevant to their scheme of things, why worry about how
it might use the municipal polls to legitimize itself?
Whether a government truce in response to the Maoists' four-month unilateral ceasefire could have fostered peace and
stability will continue to be debated. The royal regime's refusal to do so is as understandable as its critics' decision
to hold it responsible for plunging Nepal into a fresh spiral of death and destruction.
In retrospect, the greatest flaw of the 12-point agreement – and the wild optimism it generated -- was not its
ambiguity. It was its confidence that peace and stability could be restored by bypassing the real power center of the
day. No wonder, the royal regime seemed unperturbed by the "tremors" generated by the accord. King Gyanendra's decision
to continue with his much-maligned "African safari" was not a manifestation of royal aloofness. He was merely providing
an opportunity for the accord's contradictions to play out.
The Maoists have made good on their pledge of "climbing on the spine to hit on the head." By zeroing in on the highways,
supply routes in the periphery and areas of military presence – the spine – they intend to gag Kathmandu – the head – in
time to thwart the municipal polls. Few bought the peace pledges the rebels made to the U.N. human rights czar in
Kathmandu, Ian Martin, anyway.
Undaunted by the ferocity of the latest rebel offensives, the government seems prepared to confront its two adversaries
collectively and separately. Eagerly awaited is the next move of the mainstream parties. For now, the haziness
continues.
Nepali Congress vice-president Sushil Koirala rules out republicanism as the alliance's agenda. Unified Marxist-Leninist
general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal sees the palace crumbling within a month, a sentiment shared by his ideological
soulmates across the southern border. With that kind of confusion, the dissonance emanating from the smaller
constituents of the alliance does not seem to matter.
Doubtless, the growing public participation in opposition rallies in different parts of the country has emboldened the
alliance. If the weekly head counts have frightened the palace, like the alliance leaders insist, then one must conclude
that King Gyanendra and his ministers are pretty good at concealing their inner feelings.
All the same, the "we-told-you-so" look alliance leaders seem content wearing following the Maoists' return to
full-scale violence will not be enough to obscure the heart of the matter: clarifying their position vis-à-vis the royal
regime.
Through their rhetoric, party leaders have stood vociferously against reconciliation with the palace. Moreover, the rank
and file, along with the wider civil society, is cautiously watching whether the leaders would follow tradition and jump
at the first offer of compromise with the palace. So any understanding with the palace must come from a position of
strength – or at least carry the public perception as such.
If that final offensive against the "tottering vestiges of feudalism" is what alliance leaders really have in mind, then
clarity of purpose – much more than a common platform with the Maoists – would be important. Significantly, the
non-communist constituents of the opposition have become the most energetic in moderating their anti-palace invective.
As for the municipal polls, they could still be postponed -- either through massive popular mobilization against the
royal government or through overt reconciliation overtures. Either way, the ball is in the mainstream parties' court.
ENDS