Molesworth & Featherston - Weekend Update edition
Business and Political News
29 October 2005
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Rolling average poll
That ol’ mole poll is back
With Prime Minister Helen Clark in Papua New Guinea for the Pacific Island Forum till Friday it’s been a relatively
quiet week inside the Government as ministers settle into their new offices, and minor parties shuffle around inside the
Bowen house high rise to take account of their shrinking size or – in the case of the Maori party – their new-found
status.
Take the first few weeks with as many grains of salt as you like, but here is our exclusive rolling poll of polls
starting afresh with the results of the election.
(We say farewell, too, to those imitators who came and went and seemed to think they were God’s gift to the polling
industry and the only ones who weighted their polls. Wrong. See you in three years chaps.)
Our first sets of data are very thin, but as Dame Edna might say they spookily show Labour and National absolutely
levelpegging. So the numbers are (and we will introduce some more minor parties as the data gets more reliable):
percent seats
Labour 40.2 49
National 40.2 49
Greens 6.76 8
NZ First 5.07 6
Maori 1.93 4
United Future 2.37 3
Act 1.42 2
Progressive 1.1 1
It’s a 122 MP Parliament with a two seat Maori party overhang, so 62 seats make a majority. We would note that the
current Government set-up would not command a majority.
TAX AND WAGES
As the Government writes the Speech from the Throne outlining its policy programme, there are issues for business to
watch for. Page 3.
INTEREST RATES UP
The Reserve Bank Governor had little choice, even though there is a case for holding or even reducing interest rates.
But the real test will be whether rates increase again in December. Page 4.
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