Molesworth & Featherston - Weekend Update edition
Business and Political News
22 July 2005
In the latest edition:
Rolling average poll
Labour brash, National shy
The turnaround in Labour’s fortunes in the rash of polls at the end of last week have shot it back in front in our
rolling poll of polls, leaving it with a new-found confidence; and all the options. So the numbers are (assuming sitting
leaders are returned in their electorates):
percent seats
Labour 40.60 51
National 38.79 48
NZ First 7.27 9
Greens 5.49 7
Maori 2.15 3
United Future 1.79 2
Progressive 0.26 1
Act 1.29 0
Destiny 0.55 0
As it has been most of the year, National is short of a majority even with the help of both New Zealand First and United
Future. On the other side a Labour-Progressives-Green (LPG) Government, favoured by PM Clark because of the certainty of
the parties’ allegiances, can scrape together 59 seats.
Alternatively, Labour, New Zealand First and Progressive could just make it, unless there is a big overhang from the
Maori Party winning more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to.
The worry for National now is that polls showing its fortunes sliding were all but completed before Labour's king-hit on
student loans. So the lead might increase even more. Meanwhile the Green Party is worried that a chunk of its strong
yoof and university vote, which it was trying to bolster with a generous student loan policy, may have decamped to
Labour. It is busy trying to refocus student opinion on its own even more generous package, while stressing it will be
needed to help Labour deliver. In the meantime we suspect the Greens’ are in real danger of slipping under 5 per cent in
the next few polls.
MORE STOPPAGES
The fresh pace of industrial action is continuing and the Employment Relations Authority issues a long-awaited ruling.
[Pages 4 & 5].
TRADE DEALS
One trade more trade partner signed up to the p-4 deal, and a deal with malaysia is racing closer. [Page 3].
SICK OF THE ELECTION?
Tough luck, we’ve got tons, including the next big moves and the the players’s darkest fears.
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