The Fire This Time
Why Kucinich May be the Right Guy at the Right Time
Kucinich may be the only guy who can win this [US Presidential] election. Sounds far-fetched, right? What the Brits
would call Loony Left delusional thinking. The U.S. press would just ignore the whole thing, naturally, until it's no
longer possible. Just plain crazy. But is it? Every finely tuned ear has recorded the spike in interest every time
someone has had the guts to speak up about various aspects of the nascent fascism we are confronting. From Gore's early
comments breaking the taboo of criticizing Bush to Byrd's articulate blasts, mainstream politicians have received a
grateful roar from the rabble with each thrust, the bolder the better.
Of course, political parties have never been comfortable with movement politicians, and the Boy Mayor of Cleveland is no
exception. But these, of course, are no ordinary times, and along the political spectrum, from Chomsky to, say,
Chenoweth, people would be hard pressed to say the old rules will work this time around. Along with positive notes from
Chomsky, Studs Terkel, Ben Cohen of Ben and Jerry's, Lynn Woolsey of the Progressive Caucus, and left/liberal websites
like Democrats.com and Citizens for Legitimate Government, the Kucinich campaign crossed new threshold when he took
second place in the Moveon.org online primary, itself a fascinating exercise in online democracy.
It was a remarkable surge in just a few days, and his grassroots organization now spans all 50 states. While the polls
don't reflect it--as they didn't for Clinton or Carter at this point in '92 and '76, respectively--It is only a matter
of time before people start voting where they really want to--the buzz is that Dennis is people's "I would, but..."
candidate. And all the notables who take note of Kucinich, even some who overtly or implicitly endorse him, "concede"
that he doesn't have a chance.
I think they may be selling their man short. My answer to those who say we can only win by playing the same game is
that--what seems completely logical to me--it's the only way we can lose. The money and the media will always favor the
right--unless we can learn to run an insurgent, Kucinich--type candidate and campaign and win successfully, we are
screwed. Why is this news? Why should U.S. elections be so special--they are some of the most corrupt and money-polluted
scams in the world.
We need to look elsewhere for models and quit whining and focusing on old-school gamesmanship. It is nothing new for
progressive populists to run against moneyed candidates with "only" the Truth and the People on their side. Why should
this be a losing proposition? Lula did it in Brazil. Chavez did it in Venezuela. Allende did it in Chile before the CIA
mowed him down... Not only is it possible--it may be the only way to win, especially as time goes on and the
demographics further favor such insurgency. It's still Jackson's model: without bringing millions of new people into the
process, by energizing and mobilizing base constituencies, the left is suicidally following the right's game plan and
ignoring its own overwhelming strengths. The Emerging Democratic Majority may well be ours--but we have the power to
blow it by convincing future generations of Blacks, Latinos, Asians, and others that their growing numbers are not of
interest to us and they have nothing to gain by participating. The right is quite justifiably following a smart strategy
which is the only way they can win. They have even succeeded in getting most Democrats to follow a strategy which is the
only way they can lose.
The last insurgent populist campaign the Democrats dispensed with was Jesse Jackson's, and his math is still sound.
Consider this equation from his 1984 convention speech (still a great read-isn't it amazing what you can find online?):
"If Blacks vote in great numbers, progressive Whites win. It's the only way progressive Whites win. If Blacks vote in
great numbers, Hispanics win. When Blacks, Hispanics, and progressive Whites vote, women win. When women win, children
win. When women and children win, workers win. We must all come up together. We must come up together."
Those who think that campaign never set off alarm bells in the halls of power need only remember the Newsweek cover four
years later, when Jackson managed to break 50% in the Michigan primary by mobilizing tens of thousands of African
American youths to vote in their first electoral experience. Somebody found a fairly scary close-up of Jackson in the
throes of an intense speech, face contorted and sweaty in a way reminiscent of Hitler or Sun Yung Moon. The one-word
caption, in large-type yellow letters, served as headline, heads-up, and horrified call-to-arms: Jesse?! It was
apparently the moment when the establishment, although still dismissive, actually considered that he might win, and
began to contemplate what it might mean.
The math, stripped of its eloquence, looks something like this: If minority constituencies could be inspired to vote in
proportionate numbers and in line with their historical preferences, a populist candidate would need less than 40% of
the white vote to constitute a majority. In other words, in a 100 million vote election, 12% Black at 90%, 12 Latino at
65%, Asian at 60%, White Women at 53%...leads to only 25% of white men needed…. Before you get out your calculators,
remember this is only a rough sketch. The theory is that by truly energizing the progressive base, we can further effect
this shift to the left.
The problem, of course, is that Kucinich isn't Black, and it remains to be seen whether he could mobilize the necessary
base constituencies in sufficient numbers. Jackson had a special charisma, which Sharpton and Braun seem to lack in the
same quantity. It may not only be about race, though white progressives have been saying this for generations. The
difference is that the African American community still has a cohesive political consciousness: Black voters enticed to
vote can largely be relied on to support progressive causes. The same can not be said for the alienated white votership,
who occasionally sneak out in record numbers to vote for David Duke or worse.
And these tendencies aren't changing, much as we are led to believe otherwise. For one thing, the right would not be
pouring money into vote suppression if they were. Anecdotal insights may also be instructive. A Latina friend of mine,
recently naturalized, sought my advice on voting, since we often discussed politics. One caveat, she said, was that she
couldn't vote for any candidate who supported abortion. I cautioned her that, given her other beliefs, she would
probably find that pigeonholing along these lines might cause her to vote for some ideas she rejected with greater
vehemence. Some time later, it has become apparent that she is horrified by the right wing, furious at what she felt was
a GOP coup in 2000, and poised to support progressive candidates despite their reproductive rights stand. Similarly, in
California, Pete Wilson and the state GOP's ugly support for anti-immigration legislation has virtually guaranteed the
further entrenchment of these gains. And it can only get worse for the right if the left wakes up soon enough.
Even white people are getting the message. The Nation ran a piece in May quoting the likes of former Silicon Valley
moguls on how they may have changed their minds about the need for unions, limits on corporate power and the like. The
Kucinich campaign seizes on one of these transformations, maybe with a little too much hope of Things to Come (but who's
to say?), a disaffected voter who, after 22 years of being a libertarian, just switched to Democrat because he finally
found "someone to vote for: thank you Dennis Kucinich!"
The notion of elections actually reflecting the popular will is at the root of radical democratic thought, and provides
the ground on which elements of radical democratic, anarcho-socialist, libertarian and anarchist ideas intermingle.
Expanding democracy can only be a good thing. If the people's voice were truly free to be heard, would people really be
against such things as raising the minimum wage? Providing health care and education? Limiting the influence of
corporations, and the intrusive power of government in private lives?
The real trouble, of course, to advancing a people-focused, progressive agenda, is that democracy isn't really in the
offing. The money-drenched, corporate-fixed "process" we stomach has little in common with the Greek ideal, unless you
consider that women, slaves, and the poor are not included. Even before the end of American Apartheid, the hypocrisy of
exporting "democracy" was a staple of the American self-perception. Florida is only the latest chapter in our national
self-denial. It may seem ludicrous to many to think in terms of obtaining change through a major party candidate in the
current system. Without structural changes like proportional representation, instant runoff voting and other reforms
that would encourage independent and third-party participation--as well as abolishing the electoral college and other
undemocratic forms of skewed representation--not to mention long overdue representation for DC--the bar is that much
higher, and the dream recedes.
But there is no need to choose one path over the other. The fight is now, and it has never been more important. And
Kucinich just may be the Right Guy at the Right Time. To paraphrase Jackson, who paraphrased Lazarus, who couldn't have
said it better: "Give me your tired, give me your poor, your huddled masses who yearn to breathe free, and come next
November there will be a change because our time has come!"
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© 2003 Daniel Patrick Welch. Reprint permission granted with credit and link to danielpwelch.com Welch lives and writes in Salem, Massachusetts, USA, with his wife, Julia Nambalirwa-Lugudde. Together they run The Greenhouse School. A writer, singer, linguist and activist, he has appeared on radio [intervie w available here] and can be available for further interviews. Past articles, translations are available at danielpwelch.com. Links to the website appreciated.
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