David Miller Online. In the Shadows Lies Iran.
In hindsight, it was not the cleverest of moves on the part of President Bush to publicly declare that a hard line
approach would be taken against the “Axis of Evil”. It may have seemed at the time that there would be little or no
ramifications for the US when the President spoke as it was in the wake of September Eleven and the world’s sympathy was
very much with the American people. However times have changed and while there is still sympathy for the US for what
took place on that day in 2001, Washington’s enemies do not appear to be as cowed as they once where. Not only is
Washington committed to an attack on Iraq but the Axis of Evil as a whole is starting to cause the Bush Administration
serious headaches.
The latest missile test by the North Koreans signals that the issue of Pyongyang’s missiles and nuclear capabilities
will not be going away any time soon or quietly. It appears that the North Koreans view the war in Iraq as a prime
opportunity to flex their muscle and to try and gain concessions from the US and its allies to prop up their ailing
economy without the fear of a regime change. The North Koreans can only be buoyed by the news that Washington views the
crisis as a regional problem and wishes to explore multilateral means towards a resolution. Although the US has deployed
long range bombers to Guam, I doubt that the cronies of the Kim regime will be losing to many nights sleep.
The problem for the US is that the third and potentially most dangerous element of the Axis of Evil is starting to
awaken. The U.S. and Iran have a turbulent relationship that dates back to the revolution in 1979. Successive
administrations have made it clear that Iran is not only near the top of their list of adversaries but also a serious
threat to the stability of the Middle East and Persian Gulf region.
Over the past few years there has been a thawing in US-Iranian relations. Iran remains on the State Department’s list of
states that sponsor terrorism and for the past decade Iran has been considered to be the leading threat in this regard.
The emergence of Osama bin Laden has deflected this attention away from Iran and since the war on terrorism was declared
in 2001, Iran has hardly received a mention from US political and military figures. So why is it that Iran is suddenly
back in the spotlight for the wrong reasons?
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Iranian nuclear program is far more advanced than Tehran had
admitted and that the US or the I.A.E.A. had realised. Iran has already confirmed that it possesses two facilities but
claims that the development is for civilian use and that nations have the right to embark on this course of action.
The problem has gone beyond debate and concern over the Iranian capabilities, as that is now a given fact. The problem
centres on Iran’s intentions and the threat this poses to the region. The IAEA has warned that Iran is in violation of
the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and that the matter will have to be referred to the UN Security Council for action
however it is doubtful that this will worry the Iranians. The Council is preoccupied with the war in Iraq to be
effective over Iran and its nuclear facilities and even if it does act it is doubtful that it will find the unity or the
strength to act effectively.
According the Bush Administration officials, such as Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice, this announcement is of no
surprise and is simply an example of how a state can conceal weapons of mass destruction. One can infer from this that
they mean Iraq. Ms. Rice claims that the US has been concerned about Iran for a number of years now and that they have
been a lone voice that has made public such concerns. For all its posturing and threats of war in Iraq, the United
States will look to engage Iran in regional dialogue as it is doing with North Korea rather than launch a military
strike. It is possible that in the case of Iran and North Korea, other powers would intervene or that the US armed
forces would be over-stretched but that is not the real reason. The reason is that if an attack on Iraq is launched the
possibility of the regime there launching WMD or even a nuclear weapon is extremely slim. This is not because they are
less fanatical but simply because it is doubtful that Saddam has the means to. Iran and North Korea are just as
fanatical but the difference is that they have the capability and this fear will keep the US at bay. Unless Mr. Bush is
prepared to use nuclear weapons himself, then the US will not dare to embark on a fresh course of war. This is why Iran
is the danger lurking in the shadows.