David Miller Online.
The Bali Bombings: The Fall-Out.
Until one or more groups claim responsibility for the Bali bombings then it is difficult to say for certain who was
behind them and what their motivations where. Already suspicion has fallen on the al-Qaeda network and the attacks have
prompted fears that this was a demonstration of the group’s global reach and ability to deliver devastating attacks
anywhere in the world and that the realm of terrorism is widening. There are also fears that this was the work of
domestic Islamic groups with al-Qaeda connections and that they seek to establish and Islamic state across Southeast
Asia. Whichever explanation one accepts there is no denying that these bombs have left one of Asia’s most fragile
economies reeling and the setting of a dangerous precedent in this part of the world.
One of the explanations offered by the Indonesian government was that these attacks were part of a rivalry between local
gangs. This could well prove to be the case. After all, the bombs are reported to be homemade although this theory could
be tested once the degree of sophistication of the devices is known. The type of explosive used and the technology that
went into constructing these devices should give an indication as to the level of funding and planning that went into
the attacks. If the devices are found to be crude then the Indonesian government’s explanation will be given some
weight. If not, then it would suggest a more sinister plot was at work.
Assuming that this was the work of Islamic extremists and the Jemaah Islamiyah movement was involved then Indonesia and
the Asian region is faced with a much more serious problem. Jemaah Islamiyah is suspected of having links with al-Qaeda
and even though the strength of these ties cannot be judged for certain, they share the same motivation and objectives.
Jemaah Islamiyah has stated that it is dedicated to establishing a pan-Islamic zone across Southeast Asia and is accused
of being behind plots to attack US interests in the region.
The scope of international terrorism has widened to include Southeast Asia. This is something analysts have feared for
some time now. Indonesia is seen as an ideal base of operations for Islamic terrorists given its population size and
geographical location and from there they could easily extend their reach to neighbouring countries. By locating to
Indonesia and other Asian states, there is the possibility that the extremists can exploit cleavages in the political
and economic fabric that was torn apart by the economic crisis of 1998. Indonesia has not recovered from this crisis
that saw its currency and financial markets plummet and these attacks will only serve to aggravate that damage. There is
already debate over the impact the attacks will have on the Indonesian economy and whether it can ever recover. Tourism
was one of the last big money earners for the country and it is doubtful that the tourist industry will ever recover.
Out of this has come much political and ethnic instability and violence. Nationalist and ethnic tensions have never been
far from the surface within Indonesian society and in the past four years these have boiled over into conflict. It is
possible that these attacks were a continuation of that cycle of violence and that the extreme nationalists decided to
widen their campaign to include foreigners but the last four years have witnessed the rise of Islamic extremists in this
part of the world. This is the first time foreigners have been targeted so this has definitely set a new and dangerous
precedent. What these attacks tell us is that there are elements within Indonesia that do not want western influence or
participation in their country and that they are now considered targets. It also suggests much anti-US sentiment is
there as well and these two factors are linked. The US led war on terrorism has outraged many in Indonesia as it has
elsewhere and the Indonesian government has been forced to walk a tight line between its support for the US and those
groups within its own borders who oppose this support and seek to overthrow it.
It is still unknown who or what group carried out these attacks and why and only when this is known can the link to
al-Qaeda be determined. Until then it is merely speculation and suspicion but it cannot be ruled out. If these attacks
mark the beginning of a new terrorist offensive then the emphasis must shift from the Middle East to Southeast Asia and
Indonesia and other regional governments must be pressed to do more to counter this threat. Nevertheless these attacks
hint at much instability and uncertainty for the Asian region and that after Afghanistan, countries such as Indonesia
are the next place for al-Qaeda and its affiliates to gather. The war on terrorism now has a new front.