INDEPENDENT NEWS

Supercomputer Weather: Tokyo Typhoons Nos. 2 and 3

Published: Tue 11 Sep 2001 02:02 PM
The above forecast image from the NOAA supercomputer weather model shows the arrival of Typhoon Danas in downtown Tokyo on Thursday.
And according to the NOAA medium range forecast, Tokyo, which has been struck by only two typhoons in the last two decades, is facing the prospects of being battered by three typhoons in the space of a single month.
Typhoon Danas is weaker than typhoon Pabuk (see… Destination Tokyo For Typhoon Pabuk, Sludge Report #103 - A Perfect Storm For Kyoto and Typhoon Pabuk Lands, Heads For Tokyo ) which hit the Japanese capital late last month and killed several people during its passage over the Japanese mainland.
See the following links for detail of the forecast path of Typhoon Danas:
+12 Hours
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas12hrs.gif
+24 Hours
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas24hrs.gif
+36 Hours
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas36hrs.gif
+48 Hours
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas48hrs.gif
See also the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre’s forecast path for Danas:
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/wp1901.gif
However, while Danas may be weakening and will soon have crossed Japan heading north, another typhoon, Nari, is already gathering strength over the sea near the island of Okinawa, and is threatening to wreck considerable damage on the Japanese Islands this coming weekend.
By Saturday, according to the NOAA supercomputer weather model, Typhoon Nari will have reached hurricane intensity, and its outer edges will be approaching Tokyo as the above image shows.
The current NOAA forecast path for Typhoon Nari shows it passing the Japanese islands to the south, heading east.
See the following links for detail of the forecast path of Typhoon Nari:
September 15th
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2015th.gif
September 16th
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2016th.gif
September 17th
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2017th.gif
September 18th
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2018th.gif
See also the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre’s forecast path for Nari:
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/wp2001.gif
However typhoons and hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable in their paths, and in earlier forecasts for this storm NOAA has placed Tokyo in its direct path. It is also worth noting that most computer forecast models initially predicted that both Pabuk and Danas would pass by to the South of Japan.
For a live reading on the status of these typhoons and any others around the globe see the excellent resources at…
The University of Wisconsin
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/
and…
The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html
Alastair Thompson
Scoop Publisher
Alastair Thompson is the co-founder of Scoop. He is of Scottish and Irish extraction and from Wellington, New Zealand. Alastair has 24 years experience in the media, at the Dominion, National Business Review, North & South magazine, Straight Furrow newspaper and online since 1997. He is the winner of several journalism awards for business and investigative work.
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