NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW
Poll 109
[September 2000]
UMR Insight Limited
METHODOLOGY
The UMR Insight omnibus is a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years of
age or older. Fieldwork was conducted from 7 September to 10 September 2000 at UMR Insight’s national interview facility
in Auckland. The margin of error for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is +/- 3.6%.
SUMMARY
National 41% up 6
Labour 36% down 3
Green 7% up 1
Alliance 6% static
ACT 4% down 3
NZ First 3% static
PARTY VOTE
QUESTION: Under MMP you have two votes one for the candidate in the electorate you live in, and the second for a party.
Thinking about this party vote only, if the general election were held today which party would you vote for?
::::::::::::::::::::: The NZ
::::::::::::::::Base National Labour Alliance First ACT Green Other
TOTAL RESPONDENTS:::: 638::::40.5% 35.9%::::6.1% 3.0% 3.7% 6.8% 4.0%
AREA
Auckland::::::::::::179::::36.8% 39.0%::::5.7% 1.9% 5.7% 7.8% 3.1%
Provincial:::::::: 302::::42.6% 32.3%::::6.1% 4.5% 3.5% 5.9% 5.1%
Christchurch:::::::: 78::::38.2% 40.5%::::5.0% 1.5% 1.2% 10.8% 2.8%
Wellington:::::::: 79::::43.8% 37.5%::::8.2% 1.2% 2.3% 4.1% 2.9%
SEX
Male:::::::::::: 331::::39.6% 33.9%::::7.3% 2.6% 5.1% 8.1% 3.4%
Female::::::::::::307::::41.6% 37.9%::::4.9% 3.4% 2.1% 5.5% 4.6%
AGE GROUP
18-19:::::::::::: 19::::35.9% 46.5%::::5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2%
20-24:::::::::::: 40::::31.2% 31.1% 15.5% 0.0% 6.4% 15.8% 0.0%
25-29:::::::::::: 35::::33.2% 39.1% 11.1% 2.6% 2.6% 8.3% 3.1%
30-34:::::::::::: 78::::44.2% 27.2%::::5.7% 1.5% 1.7% 12.6% 7.1%
35-39:::::::::::: 68::::45.5% 30.4%::::6.1% 0.0% 5.1% 6.3% 6.6%
40-44:::::::::::: 98::::36.7% 37.3%::::4.2% 1.2% 4.0% 10.0% 6.6%
45-49:::::::::::: 57::::41.2% 37.7%::::2.6% 2.0% 6.9% 5.8% 3.8%
50-54:::::::::::: 69::::44.2% 37.0%::::4.3% 3.3% 3.8% 5.8% 1.6%
55-59:::::::::::: 53::::51.0% 36.9%::::5.6% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
60 Plus::::::::::::121::::37.5% 40.4%::::6.5% 8.5% 2.8% 2.5% 1.8%
PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000:::: 150::::29.1% 41.1%::::8.2% 4.6% 0.9% 8.1% 8.0%
$15,001-25,000::::::::98::::31.9% 39.7% 11.6% 2.3% 3.6% 7.5% 3.4%
$25,001-30,000::::::::77::::39.4% 31.1%::::7.8% 7.2% 3.1% 5.6% 5.8%
$30,001-40,000::::::::80::::44.0% 40.1%::::3.3% 1.4% 2.8% 8.4% 0.0%
$40,001-50,000::::::::54::::52.5% 24.1%::::2.7% 0.0% 14.4% 6.3% 0.0%
$50,001-70,000::::::::51::::51.9% 38.6%::::2.9% 2.2% 2.6% 0.0% 1.8%
More than $70,000:::: 40::::56.9% 31.3%::::0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 3.0% 0.0%
THE MOOD
Generally speaking are things in New Zealand heading in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Right
::::::::::::::::::::Base :::Direction:::Wrong Track:::: Unsure
TOTAL RESPONDENTS:::::::: 750::::::::33%:::::::55%:::::::12%
AREA
Auckland:::::::::::::::208::::::::34%:::::::53%:::::::13%
Provincial:::::::::::: 365::::::::30%:::::::58%:::::::12%
Christchurch:::::::::::: 95::::::::35%:::::::56%::::::::9%
Wellington:::::::::::: 82::::::::39%:::::::49%:::::::12%
SEX
Male:::::::::::::::: 375::::::::36%:::::::53%:::::::11%
Female:::::::::::::::: 375::::::::29%:::::::58%:::::::13%
AGE GROUP
18-19:::::::::::::::: 19::::::::47%:::::::37%:::::::16%
20-24:::::::::::::::: 44::::::::43%:::::::50%::::::::7%
25-29:::::::::::::::: 43::::::::28%:::::::56%:::::::16%
30-34:::::::::::::::: 85::::::::29%:::::::57%:::::::14%
35-39:::::::::::::::: 86::::::::35%:::::::52%:::::::13%
40-44:::::::::::::::: 107::::::::32%:::::::60%::::::::8%
45-49:::::::::::::::: 64::::::::34%:::::::53%:::::::13%
50-54:::::::::::::::: 84::::::::33%:::::::62%::::::::5%
55-59:::::::::::::::: 65::::::::26%:::::::63%:::::::11%
60 Plus::::::::::::::::153::::::::32%:::::::50%:::::::18%
PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000:::::::: 176::::::::34%:::::::50%:::::::16%
$15,001-25,000::::::::::::118::::::::40%:::::::52%::::::::8%
$25,001-30,000::::::::::::86::::::::26%:::::::59%:::::::15%
$30,001-40,000::::::::::::92::::::::35%:::::::55%:::::::10%
$40,001-50,000::::::::::::56::::::::37%:::::::52%:::::::11%
$50,001-70,000::::::::::::60::::::::36%:::::::57%::::::::7%
More than $70,000:::::::: 45::::::::24%:::::::69%::::::::7%
PARTY VOTE – MINOR PARTIES
QUESTION: As you may know under MMP you have two votes, one for the candidate in the electorate you live in and the
second for a party. Thinking about this party vote only, if the general election were held today which party would you
vote for?
PARTY: JUN 99 JUL 99 AUG 99 SEP 99 OCT 99 NOV 99 ELECTION 99 JAN 00 FEB 00 MAR 00 APR 00 MAY 00 JUN 00 JUL 00 AUG 00 SEP
00
Christian Heritage 1.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 2.2 1.2
1.9 1.6 0.6 1.2
Christian Democrats/Future NZ 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3
0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.7
ALCP 0.6 - 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 - - 0.3 0.1
1.3 0.3
“Maori Party” - - - - - 0.3 - - - 0.2 - - 0.5
- - -
United - 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 - 0.9 - 0.3 0.3 0.7
- -
Other 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.3 2.1 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.4
0.8 1.8
ENDS