Key Will Not Be Losing Any Sleep Over Political Poll, UC Expert Says
February 21, 2013
A University of Canterbury (UC) political scientist believes Prime Minister John Key will not be losing any sleep over
the latest Fairfax Media-Ipsos political poll which shows Labour inching into contention ahead of next year’s general
election.
On the poll’s figures, it would be a dead-heat between a National-led bloc and a Labour-led bloc in a 122-seat
Parliament.
But UC political scientist Professor Alex Tan said 18 months out from the next election, it was too early to be
predicting a winner when there were many plausible factors that could change suddenly.
In politics a political scandal, for example, could sway public support. As far as Labour leader David Shearer was
concerned, he was too much of an unknown to many so doubts about his performance were understandable. As the public got
to know more of him, his support level could change either way, Professor Tan said.
``If you use the poll numbers and consider the 3.4 percent margin error, National could win with the support of a few
more seats from coalition partners or lose outright because of few options for coalition.
``The current poll number is misleading because despite the low support levels for the minor parties currently in
coalition with National, these parties tend to be able to win constituency seats. There is still a lot of time between
now and the next election to be more precise about our prediction.
``I don’t think John Key is losing sleep over this nor Shearer totally excited about the number as seasoned politicians
know that it is simply too far out of the election.
``However, party leaders use these numbers to get some feel of public support. Shearer may use this as a point to
consolidate his hold on the Labour leadership, while Key and National may use this just as a pulse meter for how well or
how poorly they have been doing in the last year or so.’’
Professor Tan said he was unsure whether there had been a marked improvement in Shearer but he is more vocal and being
interviewed more.
It would only become a concern for National if the poll became a permanent trend leading into the election. If support
continued to decline then they have a problem, Professor Tan said.
``We don’t have the numbers for preferred Prime Minister but in general it seems like Key is doing fine. He exudes an
image that he is on top of things such as a Cabinet reshuffle, introducing younger MPs and moving a senior cabinet
minister to solve problems like the Novopay issue.
ENDS