INDEPENDENT NEWS

Update On COVID-19 And Seasonal Adjustment – Methods Paper

Published: Wed 14 Apr 2021 12:06 PM
The COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions have caused abrupt changes to actual values for many time series.
Our standard seasonal adjustment method (X13 ARIMA SEATS), was not able to handle the extreme movements in data points resulting from COVID-19-related disruptions in activity. X13 ARIMA allocated too much of the unusual value to the seasonal and trend components instead of the irregular component.
Untreated, this would have significantly altered the seasonal factors and caused large and undesirable revisions to the seasonally adjusted time series. As the COVID-19 disruption in the June 2020 quarter was an abrupt shock, it should be reflected in the irregular component and not affect historical seasonal patterns; allowing this would be incorrect and misleading.
To remedy this, we have identified and treated unusual data points for affected time series using additive outliers so that they were attributed to the irregular component.
For further information, see
Impact of COVID-19 on seasonally adjusted and trend series
.Visit our website to read this methods paper:
Update on COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment

Next in Business, Science, and Tech

General Practices Begin Issuing Clause 14 Notices In Relation To The NZNO Primary Practice Pay Equity Claim
By: Genpro
Global Screen Industry Unites For Streaming Platform Regulation And Intellectual Property Protections
By: SPADA
View as: DESKTOP | MOBILE © Scoop Media