An estimated 240,000–260,000 visitors from overseas are in New Zealand as of late March 2020, Stats NZ said today. Of
these, about 5 in 6 are non-New Zealand citizens while the balance are New Zealand citizens.
“We've derived this provisional estimate to assist with COVID-19 analysis and decision-making,” said population insights
senior manager Brooke Theyers. "The estimate, using international travel data, is an indication of how many overseas
visitors may depart in the coming weeks."
The estimate is based on arrivals of overseas visitors in the past 12 months who have not yet departed New Zealand.
Overseas visitors are people who had been living overseas for at least the 12 months before they arrived in New Zealand,
irrespective of the nationality of their passport, and plan to stay in New Zealand for less than one year.
“This is an estimate of the size of the pool of overseas visitors in New Zealand at a point in time, not the flow of
people coming into or leaving the country each week or month,” Mrs Theyers said. “We know the flows in and out of New
Zealand have slowed significantly in recent weeks.”
Over recent weeks, governments have imposed international travel restrictions in multiple countries, due to the spread
of COVID-19 around the world. On 19 March, the New Zealand government took further measures to protect New Zealanders
from the COVID-19 virus, effectively stopping all people from boarding a plane to New Zealand, except for returning New
Zealanders. See Stronger border measures to protect NZers from COVID-19.
“If and when visitors in New Zealand will return overseas will depend on the availability of flights and their purpose
of travel to New Zealand,” Mrs Theyers said. "While most visitors to New Zealand are tourists here for a short time,
large numbers are also here for work and study over many weeks or months."
In 2019, for example, of the 3.9 million visitor arrivals to New Zealand, 1 in 8 stayed for more than a month.
Monthly averages published by Stats NZ, currently available to January 2020, show that relatively large numbers of
overseas visitors are in New Zealand in March each year. In March 2019 there was an average of 242,000 visitors each
day, and in March 2018 the average was 247,000. The peak is during the summer months of December to February.
Comprehensive international travel statistics for February 2020 and March 2020 are scheduled for release on 14 April and 14 May 2020, respectively, after
arrival card data have been processed. (Source: Infoshare, Subject category: Tourism, Group: International Travel and Migration, Table: Visitors – average number in New Zealand
each day by country of residence (Monthly)).
In addition to the above estimate of visitors, 140,000 migrants arrived in New Zealand over the last year. Some of these
people may choose to return to another country.
There are also many New Zealanders with overseas connections. The 2018 Census counted 1.3 million people living in New
Zealand who were born overseas, 27 percent of the population.
Further updates of these provisional estimates of visitors in New Zealand, and of the estimated 100,000–110,000 New Zealand residents travelling overseas currently, will be published on the Provisional international travel statistics
webpage. From today, that webpage will also include more timely, but provisional, border crossing data to assist with
COVID-19 analysis and decision-making.
This information complements the Tourism data factsheet published by MBIE which focuses on the inbound tourism sector and people in New Zealand on visitor visas. That analysis
excludes Australian and New Zealand citizens visiting New Zealand, as well as visitors on work, student and other visa
types.