Measuring international migration using travel histories
1 September 2017
Estimates of international migration that use a new outcomes-based measure, the ‘12/16-month rule’, are now updated,
Stats NZ said today.
In May 2017, Stats NZ introduced a new measure of migration that identifies an individual’s migrant status after we
observe their travel history over a 16-month follow-up period. We also produced a historic data series using the new
measure.
Defining migrants using travel histories and the ‘12/16-month rule’ describes the new measure.
Today’s release extends the time series that uses the new measure, progresses the planned regular updating of the new
time series, and provides insight into how migration outcomes compare with people’s intentions when they cross the
border.
“With the pending removal of departure cards, developing the ‘12/16-month rule’ is a part of our work towards ensuring
we can measure migration without depending on traveller cards,” population statistics senior manager Peter Dolan said.
“In the near future, the outcomes-based ‘12/16-month rule’ is expected to become a key component in how we determine the
number of migrants in New Zealand.”
Historical data from the first release in May, which we prepared using data from the Stats NZ Integrated Data
Infrastructure, covers January 2001–December 2014. The newly released update to the series uses international travel and
migration data, which is more timely, is sourced from New Zealand Customs, and covers January 2015–March 2016.
When comparing migrant numbers from both measures, we found that migrant arrivals and departures were higher when
classified by the 12/16-month rule. Despite the difference in the numbers, the overall trend in migrant arrivals and
departures was similar for both measures.
Net migration gains from the two measures track closely and also follow a similar trend.
See Outcomes versus intentions: Measuring migration based on travel histories for more information.
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