Thursday 16 February 2017 10:14 AM
Government ekes out six-month surplus of $9M as consumption drives up GST take
By Jonathan Underhill
Feb. 16 (BusinessDesk) - The New Zealand government eked out a tiny surplus in the first six months of the fiscal year
as growth in domestic consumption lifted the goods and services tax take, while uncertainties over the Kaikoura
earthquake costs meant expenses were less than expected.
The operating balance before gains and losses was a surplus of $9 million in the six months ended Dec. 31, compared with
a forecast deficit of $666 million in the Treasury’s Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update (HYEFU). That was largely due
to core Crown revenue being 0.9 percent more than forecast at $35.4 billion while core Crown expenses were 0.8 percent
below forecast at $38.1 billion.
The tax take has been rising in an economy which is outpacing many of New Zealand's trading partners. The Treasury said
today that GST revenue was 1.9 percent, or $173 million above forecast, "consistent with the higher than forecast growth
in domestic consumption through the September quarter". Core Crown expenses were $303 million less than expected, with
the Treasury said mainly reflected "forecast expected costs in relation to the Kaikōura earthquakes which have yet to be
quantified with enough certainty to include in the actual results".
"Over time, as reasonable estimates are able to be made, these costs will be recognised in the actual results, reducing
the variance," the department said.
The actual operating balance was a surplus of $6.1 billion compared with a HYEFU forecast of $2.47 billion. Net gains in
the fiscal first half of $5.9 billion, were $2.9 billion higher than forecast, primarily related to an actuarial gain of
$3.1 billion ($2.8 billion higher than forecast) of the ACC liability, the Treasury said.
Core Crown net debt was $65.3 billion, or 25.5 percent of gross domestic product, largely reflecting higher than
forecast residual cash deficit, partially offset by the impact of higher than forecast circulating currency, due to
increased demand for currency over the Christmas period, leading to an increase in financial assets, it said.
Gross debt was $86.7 billion, or 33.9 percent of GDP. That was $1.6 billion below forecast and reflected increased
repurchasing of government stock.
The net worth attributable to the Crown was $95.5 billion, compared with a HYEFU forecast of $91.9 billion.
In December, the HYEFU reduced the Obegal surplus by $200 million to $473 million for the 2017 fiscal year compared to
the May budget before projecting growth of a combined $1.3 billion through to 2020, producing a forecast surplus of $8.5
billion in the year to June 2021. The Treasury lifted its economic growth forecasts for the next three years, with real
gross domestic product now expected to grow 3.6 percent on an annual average basis in the June 2017 year, up from the
2.9 percent pace it projected in the May budget. On average, the Treasury expected growth to average 3 percent a year
over the next five years.
(BusinessDesk)