NZ business confidence drops on higher interest rates and falling dairy prices
By Suze Metherell
May,28 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand business confidence extended its slide from a record high to a third month, in the
face of rising interest rates, declining dairy prices and a persistently high kiwi dollar.
A net 53.5 percent of firms are optimistic about general business conditions this month, down from 64.8 percent in April
and a 20-year high of 70.8 percent in February, according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey.
"Economic momentum is clearly easing," said Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand. "All up, it's of
little surprise to see most survey indicators nudging lower but still well north of 'average', implying we're still in
an economic sweet-spot."
Agriculture was the most pessimistic sector, dropping 12 points to 30.6 percent, which may in part be driven by a drop
in prices for global dairy products.
Dairy prices fell to a new 15-month low in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction last week, after spiking up in early
2013. Dairy is New Zealand's largest export, making up 30 percent of goods headed offshore. This morning, Fonterra
Cooperative Group, the world's largest dairy exporter, forecast a 17 percent drop in its milk payout for 2014/2015.
The New Zealand dollar softened after the report. It was recently trading at 85.44 US cents from 85.60 cents immediately
before the 1pm release.
Construction was the most bullish sector at 63 percent, having slipped from 65.4 percent in the previous month. Services
slipped to 61.1 percent from 68.5 percent. Retail plunged to 51.4 percent from 71.1 percent and manufacturing slipped to
40.6 percent from last month's 61.3 percent.
The performance of manufacturing index slipped in April, while government data earlier this month showed retail sales
grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter of this year as the Reserve Bank kicked off a cycle of interest
rate hikes to put a lid on inflationary pressures. The Reserve Bank has signalled more interest rate increases are to
come although the pace may slow as the kiwi dollar remains high, which is exerting downwards pressure on tradable
inflation.
A net 88.7 percent of those polled expect interest rates to rise, up from 86.3 percent last month, while those expecting
to raise prices fell to 27.5 percent from 30.2 percent and inflation expectations declined to 2.55 percent from 2.59
percent. Exports slid to 24.7 percent from 34 percent.
Firms' confidence about their own activity outlook eased back to a net 51 percent from 52.2 percent and investment
intentions fell to 23.4 percent, from 29.5 percent, while expectations of taking on workers, was flat at 29.8 percent.
Those seeing higher profits ahead slipped to 31 percent from 35.7 percent.
(BusinessDesk)