Welcome to the March 6 2008 editions of the BNZ Weekly and Offshore Overviews.
This week we are running our monthly survey of the confidence of Weekly Overview readers. This survey is the first
available each month showing what people are generally thinking out there so it would be great if you have the time to
click on the URL below and let us know whether you think the economy will get better or worse over the coming month.
More importantly, if time permits pen a sentence or two telling us how things are in your particular industry at the
moment specifying what the industry is. The results will be sent out Monday afternoon.
http://survey.usuite.com/survey/7f801dd05f3742619b046cc119c15106.sur
This week we have seen the Kiwi dollar edge back slightly from last week's unusual high to end just over 80 cents with
some assistance from the Reserve Bank continuing to stress inflation risks in its official cash rate review this
morning. As expected the rate was left unchanged at 8.25% but strong downside growth risks were also stressed. In
contrast across the Tasman the Reserve Bank of Australia raised their cash rate to 7.25% and there remains some chance
they could go again. Having said that we are receiving weaker data on the Australian economy with regard to retail
spending and household borrowing.
In the United States data releases over the week have been largely negative although a report on the services sector
last night wasn't as bad as thought. In the United States what really matters is the jobs report out tomorrow night
which may or may not show a repeat of January’s decline in job numbers.
In Japan businesses have been cutting back on their capital spending, confidence levels are low, and immediate growth
prospects do not look that flash. In spite of that the Japanese yen has risen to a three year high against the greenback
this week with investors scared of taking on overseas risks.
In China data releases have been rare this week and the outlook remains for one of tightening monetary policy to contain
inflation currently at 7.1% but with growth still likely to come in above 10% this year.
In the United Kingdom consumer confidence remains poor but a couple of readings for the manufacturing and services
sector were slightly stronger than expected. Mild growth remains in prospect. And finally, in Europe data releases
continue to validate the decoupling theory especially with the German economy looking relatively good.
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(See attached file: WOMch6.pdf)(See attached file: OOMch6.pdf)
ENDS