Welcome to the January 12 edition of the BNZ Weekly Overview.
The main issue for this year is going to be how much growth slows down and how that slowing is spread across sectors.
The longer it takes for the exchange rate to come down the greater the export sector pain and the longer it will take
for domestic sectors like housing and retailing to feel it. For now there is no clear strong downward trend in the NZD.
Regarding interest rates we see no easing from the RB until next year, but little upside left in fixed rates unless
there is a surprising major sell-off in the US bond market.
See... WOJan12.pdf