22 July 2003
Best investment returns since 1998
New Zealand investors enjoyed the best quarterly returns since 1998 according to the latest performance results from AMP
Henderson, New Zealand’s largest fund manager.
This strong result can be attributed to concerns that hung over the markets earlier in the year receding, and the
willingness of policy makers around the world to lower interest rates and hold them low to stimulate growth.
Domestic shares continued their steady performance and delivered a solid 15.2%. Global equities rebounded from
discounted levels and delivered 17.8% on a currency hedged basis and 9.3% on an unhedged basis, says AMP Henderson
Global Investors.
‘The return on hedged global shares was much better as a result of the continued climb of the New Zealand dollar which
increased 5.9% against the US dollar over the quarter’ said Paul Dyer, AMP Henderson’s Chief Investment Officer.
Global fixed interest and New Zealand fixed interest assets returned 3.7% and 4.0% respectively, benefiting from the
falls in long-term interest rates.
‘While deflationary risks are clearly a global concern we believe the risks are overstated and that the low interest
rate sentiment has probably peaked. Bonds have had a great run over the last twelve months but this is unlikely to
continue.
‘During the quarter we became concerned about the extremely low level of global fixed interest rates. As a result we
almost entirely sold out of these markets. In most regions we have now started buying back into these markets as yields
have been rising.
‘The New Zealand dollar has risen steadily over the last two years. However, there are indications that the rise may be
coming to an end. The currency is now slightly above most valuation ranges.
‘The past two weeks have seen increased volatility in both the New Zealand dollar and other commodity currencies. This
may indicate an end to the previous upward trend’ said Mr Dyer
Property yields remained stable with the New Zealand portfolio achieving 2.4% for the quarter. AMP Henderson’s long-term
view of property continues to be favourable if adequate diversification is achieved
Recently AMP Henderson included an exposure to global property in its balanced funds.
‘Global property vehicles are now available to New Zealand investors. The attractive pricing of these assets and the
reduction in risk that they bring to investors’ portfolios makes them attractive’ said Mr Dyer.
‘Looking ahead, while the June quarter saw a welcome lift in returns across all asset classes, future returns cannot be
sustained at these levels. Around the world, average interest rates are between 3% and 3.5%, while in New Zealand
they’re between 5.5% and 6%. Sharemarkets remain priced to return somewhat higher returns. Our best estimates for
long-term share market returns are between 8% and 10%’ said Mr Dyer.
Ends
To 30 June 2003
Quarter Return
To 30 June 2003
Annual Return
Individual Sectors – Before Tax
Strategic Equity Growth
NZ Equities Active
Global Equities Active
Property
New Zealand Fixed Interest
Global Fixed Interest
Cash
14.55%
15.17%
12.01%
2.43%
3.96%
3.73%
1.51%
13.04%
13.73%
-13.48%
8.54%
12.77%
12.41%
6.21%
Managed Funds – Before Tax
Low Risk Fund
Medium Risk Fund
High Risk Fund
5.62%
8.58%
13.37%
6.07%
2.42%
1.03%
Passive Funds – Before Tax
Global Equities – Passive
Global Equities – Passive Hedged
NZ Equities – Passive
9.29%
17.83%
14.74%
-18.62%
7.65%
11.78%
Index Performance
MSCI Gross Index
NZSE40 Gross Index
NZ Equity Average
CSFB Bills Gross Index
CSFB Bond Index
Global Bond Index (Lehman/SWBI composite Index)
10.78%
14.52%
13.35%
1.43%
3.97%
2.96%
-19.01%
10.24%
16.03%
5.99%
11.83%
13.53%